Sunday, October 31, 2010

What is Sabermetrics?


Now that Sandy Alderson is the Mets GM, he will using Sabermetrics as a measurement in our team performance.

Sandy Alderson as general manager of the Oakland Athletics began focusing on sabermetric principles toward obtaining relatively undervalued players as a result of directives from new owners Stephen Schott and Ken Hofmann to slash payroll in 1995.

Alderson's successor and protégé Billy Beane has been the Athletics' general manager since 1997. Although not a public proponent of sabermetrics, it has been widely noted that Beane has steered the team during his tenure according to sabermetric principles. Since the Athletics have lower revenues and are considered a small market team, Beane's use of sabermetrics to capitalize on what are perceived to be undervalued talents is sometimes credited with keeping the A's competitive with larger market teams like the Yankees and Red Sox.

Alderson who is looking to hire Paul Depodesta as a statistical analysis for the Mets.

Paul DePodesta was a key figure in Michael Lewis' book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game. It was in this book that sabermetric baseball analysis was thrust into the mainstream.

At the age of 31, he was named general manager of the Los Angeles Dodgers on February 16, 2004 making him the fourth-youngest person to be named general manager in baseball history. On June 30, 2006, DePodesta was hired as the special assistant of baseball operations for the San Diego Padres.

What is Sabermetrics?

Sabermetrics is the analysis of baseball through objective evidence, especially baseball statistics that measure in-game activity rather than industry activity such as attendance. The term is derived from the acronym SABR, which stands for the Society for American Baseball Research. It was coined by Bill James, who was one of its pioneers and has long been its most prominent advocate and public face.

Examples of sabermetric measurements and their definitions:

Base Runs (BsR)

Base Runs (BsR) is a baseball statistic invented by sabermetrician David Smyth to estimate the number of runs a team "should" have scored given their component offensive statistics, as well as the number of runs a hitter/pitcher creates/allows.

It measures essentially the same thing as Bill James' Runs Created, but as sabermetrician Tom M. Tango points out, BaseRuns models the reality of the run-scoring process significantly better than any other "run estimator".

Defense Independent Pitching Statistics (DIPS)

In baseball, defense-independent pitching statistics (DIPS) measure a pitcher's effectiveness based only on plays that do not involve fielders: home runs allowed, strikeouts, hit batters, walks, and, more recently, fly ball percentage, ground ball percentage, and (to much a lesser extent) line drive percentage. Those plays are under only the pitcher's control in the sense that fielders (not including the catcher) have no effect on their outcome.

Equivalent average (EQA)

Equivalent Average (EqA) is a baseball metric invented by Clay Davenport and intended to express the production of hitters in a context independent of park and league effects.[1] It represents a hitter's productivity using the same scale as batting average. Thus, a hitter with an EqA over .300 is a very good hitter, while a hitter with an EqA of .220 or below is poor. An EqA of .260 is defined as league average.

When EqA was invented cannot readily be documented, but references to it were being offered on the rec.sport.baseball usenet as early as January 14, 1996.

Fantasy Batter Value (FBV)

Late-inning pressure situations (LIPS)

A late-inning pressure situation is a baseball statistic developed by the Elias Sports Bureau in their annual book The 1985 Elias Baseball Analyst to determine if "clutch" hitters exist. This question was first posed by Richard D. Cramer in his article "Do Clutch Hitters Exist?" published in the 1977 edition of The Baseball Research Journal. According to the Elias Sports Bureau, a Late Inning Pressure Situation is "any at-bat in the seventh inning or later, with the batter's team trailing by three runs or less (or four runs if the bases were loaded)." Development of the late inning pressure situation coincides with an increased attempt to reflect an individual's accomplishments in baseball statistics. In the case of the late inning pressure situation, it attempts to quantify the subjective term "clutch".

On-base plus slugging (OPS)

On-base plus slugging (OPS) is a sabermetric baseball statistic calculated as the sum of a player's on-base percentage and slugging percentage.[1] The ability of a player to both get on base and to hit for power, two important hitting skills, are represented. An OPS of .900 or higher in Major League Baseball puts the player in the upper echelon of hitters. Typically, the league leader in OPS will score near, and sometimes above, the 1.000 mark.

PECOTA (Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm)

PECOTA, a backronym for Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm, is a sabermetric system for forecasting Major League Baseball player performance. The acronym was actually based on the name of journeyman major league player Bill Pecota, who with a lifetime batting average of .249 is perhaps representative of the typical PECOTA entry. PECOTA was developed by Nate Silver in 2002-2003 and introduced to the public in the book Baseball Prospectus 2003.[1] Baseball Prospectus (BP) has owned PECOTA since 2003; Silver managed PECOTA from 2003 to 2009. Beginning in Spring 2009, BP assumed responsibility for producing the annual forecasts.

Peripheral ERA (PERA)

Peripheral ERA (PERA) is a pitching statistic created by the Baseball Prospectus team. It is the expected earned run average taking into account park-adjusted hits, walks, strikeouts, and home runs allowed. Unlike Voros McCracken's DIPS, hits allowed are included. PERA doesn't attempt to eliminate the effect of luck on batted balls away from ERA, instead attempting to account for good (or bad) luck in the combinations of hits, walks, home runs, and strikeouts. A lower PERA than EqERA (adjusted ERA) may indicate poor luck which may even itself out in the future, leading to a lower EqERA despite no change in quality of pitching.

Pythagorean expectation

Pythagorean expectation is a formula invented by Bill James to estimate how many games a baseball team "should" have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed. Comparing a team's actual and Pythagorean winning percentage can be used to evaluate how lucky that team was (by examining the variation between the two winning percentages). The term is derived from the formula's resemblance to the Pythagorean theorem.

Range Factor

Range Factor (commonly abbreviated RF) is a baseball statistic developed by Bill James. It is calculated by dividing putouts and assists by number of innings or games played at a given defense position.[1] The statistic is premised on the notion that the total number of outs that a player participates in is more relevant in evaluating his defensive play than the percentage of cleanly handled chances as calculated by the conventional statistic fielding percentage.

Runs created

Runs created (RC) is a baseball statistic invented by Bill James to estimate the number of runs a hitter contributes to his team.

Secondary average

Secondary average, or SecA, is a baseball statistic - more precisely, a sabermetric measurement of hitting performance. It is a complement to batting average, which is a simple ratio of base hits to at bats. Secondary average is a ratio of bases gained from other sources (extra base hits, walks and net bases gained through stolen bases) to at bats. Secondary averages have a higher variance than batting averages.

Similarity score

In Sabermetrics and APBRmetrics, similarity scores are a method of comparing baseball and basketball players (usually in MLB or the NBA) to other players, with the intent of discovering who the most similar historical players are to a certain player.

Speed Score

Speed Score is a statistic used in Sabermetric studies to evaluate a baseball player's speed. It was invented by Bill James, and first appeared in the 1987 edition of the Bill James Baseball Abstract.[1]

Speed Score includes five factors: stolen base percentage, stolen base attempts as a percentage of opportunities, triples, double plays grounded into as a percentage of opportunities, and runs scored as a percentage of times on base.[2] Baseball Prospectus has developed a modified version of Speed Score that equally weights each component.

Super linear weights

Super Linear Weights is a method for evaluating the contributions of a baseball player towards his team. It was designed by Mitchel Lichtman and it calculates the total value that a baseball player contributes towards his team in terms of runs, where 0 represents the number of runs the average player adds. It uses linear weights to determine how many runs a player contributes on offense and Ultimate zone rating (UZR) to determine how many runs he saves on defense.

Super Linear Weights measures value, or how much a player actually contributes to his team, as opposed to ability, or how good the player is independent of the context in which he plays (park, team, league, etc.) An example of another measure of value is Bill James' Win Shares. Some examples of measures of ability are Pete Palmer's Total player rating and Keith Woolner's Value over replacement player. Measures of value are often used to compose lists of the best players in a certain season or of all-time, whereas measures of ability are often used to predict a player's performance in future seasons.

Total player rating (aka PW/BFW)

Total player rating (TPR), also known as Batter-Fielder/Pitcher Wins (BFW/PW) is a metric for measuring the value of baseball players, and to enable players to be compared against each other even when they played for different teams, at different positions, and in different eras. It was developed by sabermetrician Pete Palmer and was popularized in the Total Baseball series of encyclopedias during the 1980s.

Ultimate zone rating (UZR)

Ultimate zone rating (UZR) is a sabermetric statistic used to measure fielding.

UZR calculations are provided at Fangraphs by Mitchel Lichtman.

Value over replacement player (VORP)

In baseball, value over replacement player (or VORP) is a statistic popularized by Keith Woolner that demonstrates how much a hitter contributes offensively or how much a pitcher contributes to his team in comparison to a fictitious "replacement player," who is an average fielder at his position and a below average hitter[1][2]. A replacement player performs at "replacement level," which is the level of performance an average team can expect when trying to replace a player at minimal cost, also known as "freely available talent."

Win shares

Win shares is the name of the metric Bill James describes in his 2002 book Win Shares.

It considers statistics for baseball players, in the context of their team and in a sabermetric way, and assigns a single number to each player for his contributions for the year. All pitching, hitting and defensive contributions by the player are taken into account. Statistics are adjusted for park, league and era.

wOBA

In baseball, wOBA (or weighted on-base average) is a statistic, based on linear weights, designed to measure a player's overall offensive contributions per plate appearance. It is formed from taking the observed run values of various offensive events, dividing by a player's plate appearances, and scaling the result to be on the same scale as on-base percentage. Unlike statistics like OPS, wOBA attempts to assign the proper value for each type of hitting event. It was created by Tom Tango and his coauthors for The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball.

Wins above replacement (WAR)

Wins Above Replacement, commonly known as WAR, is a sabermetric baseball statistic that is used to show how many more wins a player would give a team as opposed to a below-average player at that position. This statistic is commonly used in Baseball Prospectus.

I would like to thank Wikipedia for all the definitions and references for making this post. If you would like to read more about Sabermetrics, Click Here!

Saturday, October 30, 2010

Mets offer 1 year deal to Takahashi


The Mets have to significantly increase their initial offer to the left-hander Hisanori Takahashi, he is almost certain to leave the team.

Takahashi wants a two- or three-year deal, but the Mets’ original incentive-laden offer was for only one guaranteed year.


But that offer was made before Sandy Alderson was named general manager, so he may have other thoughts on the issue.

The Mets have until Nov. 5 to come to an agreement, or Takahashi cannot re-sign with them under a major league contract until May 15, essentially ensuring he will sign elsewhere. Takahashi’s contract had a clause written into it that mandated the Mets had to release him either 10 days after the Mets’ season ended or Oct. 31, whichever came later.

On Thursday, the sides were granted an extension because Takahashi hired a new agent and Alderson had just come on board. Once the deadline passes, Takahashi can field offers from any of the other 29 teams.

According to the major leagues’ Rule 8 (i) (2), any player who is released by a team after midnight Aug. 31 cannot sign a major league contract with the same team until May 15 of the following year. He can sign a minor league contract, but Takahashi would almost certainly not do that. Even if he did, he still could not be called up to the major leagues until May 15.

2010 Season Stats
SPLITSGGSCGIPHRERHRBBSOWLSVHLDBLSVWHIPERA
Season53120122.0116514913431141068301.303.61
Career53120122.0116514913431141068001.303.61

Rumor mill: Could DePodesta and Ricciardi combo be next?


Alderson will work to bring in a few loyalists from his past to help implement his philosophy. He said he has to straighten out the front office a little.

According to several sources, he already has reached out to Paul DePodesta, whom he hired in San Diego, to help strengthen the Mets’ statistical department and J.P. Ricciardi, whom he worked with in Oakland, to assist on player personnel. 

DePodesta, the former Dodgers GM, has to decide if he wants to leave the Padres for whom he is executive VP. A few executives briefed on the subject said they think DePodesta will join the Mets. Ricciardi, the former Blue Jays GM, is an analyst for ESPN who is weighing several options.

Scout.com

Video: Kevin Burkhardt's interview with Sandy Alderson yesterday on SNY


Here is Kevin Burkhardt's interview with Sandy Alderson on SNY after his press conference.

Potential Mets Candidates for Manager


Hey let's just look at the names that have been mentioned for the Mets manager:

Mets Chronicle Fan Meter: 
 
****= Excellent Candidate (First Choices)
***= Good Candidate (Second Choices)
**= OK Candidate (Live with it, if I had to)
*= Poor Candidate (Don't want)


Contenders (Favorites):

Clint Hurdle - The Rangers hitting coach managed the Rockies for seven seasons, reaching the World Series in 2007. He was fired in 2009. Hurdle played for the Mets and managed in their farm system. Known for his enthusiasm.  Mets Chronicle Fan Meter : ****

John Gibbons - Former Toronto manager was hired by J.P. Ricciardi, who worked for Alderson in Oakland. He was a first-round pick of the Mets in 1980 (the same draft the Mets took another Alderson protege, Billy Beane). Interviewed this offseason with Pittsburgh and Seattle for their managerial spots.
Mets Chronicle Fan Meter: ***


DeMarlo Hale - Boston’s energetic bench coach under Terry Francona. Hale was a finalist for the Blue Jays managing job before John Farrell was named.
Mets Chronicle Fan Meter: **

Bob Melvin - Hired last year by the Mets as a scout. Melvin reached the NLCS with Arizona in 2007 after also managing the Mariners. He has been involved in Milwaukee’s managerial search.
Mets Chronicle Fan Meter: *

Terry Collins- The former Astros and Angels skipper, Collins was brought in as the Mets’ minor league field coordinator last year. He finished in second in each of his five full seasons as a manager.
Mets Chronicle Fan Meter: *

Don Wakamatsu - Former Seattle manager was fired in August in the middle of a disappointing season. Was bench coach in Oakland in 2008 for Beane’s A’s. Is known as bright and hard working.
Mets Chronicle Fan Meter: *

Chip Hale - The Mets’ third-base coach last season. Well thought of in the organization and managed in Arizona’s farm system. Mets Chronicle Fan Meter: *


Long Shots

Joe Torre - The former Mets and Yankees manager expressed interest in the Mets job before it was vacant, but then said he wasn’t interested. Though few are better equipped to deal with New York, his high price tag is probably too big an obstacle. Mets Chronicle Fan Meter:  1/2 (*)

Wally Backman - A fan and Wilpon favorite. Spent last year managing the Brooklyn Cyclones. Alderson does not like drama in a manager, and the fiery Backman is all about drama. Could the compromise be a spot on the coaching staff?  Mets Chronicle Fan Meter: ****

Bobby Valentine - The former Mets manager is an unlikely fit with Alderson, who does not like drama out of the dugout. He is still in the running for the Brewers managing job after being considered in Florida and Seattle. Mets Chronicle Fan Meter : **

Source: NY Post 

Others not mentioned:

Lee Mazzilli - Brooklyn-raised and an ex-Met, he also has experience as a major league manager, with Baltimore. Mazzilli remains close to Mets principal owner Fred Wilpon.
Mets Chronicle Fan Meter: * 1/2


Ken Oberkfell - A former major league infielder for the St. Louis Cardinals and Atlanta Braves, the likable Oberkfell has managed the Mets' Triple-A affiliate through stops in Norfolk, New Orleans and now Buffalo. Oberkfell is again managing Escogido in the Dominican Republic this winter. Last year, he led that squad to the Caribbean Series title.  Mets Chronicle Fan Meter: * 1/2

Source: ESPN Mets Blog

Must Read: 10 items on Sandy Alderson's agenda


MMO has a report from  John Delcos (New York Mets report). It has a great article out explaining the next ten items on the GM's agenda.

Link: Lupica - Mets GM Sandy Alderson doesn't make promises, but his presence can inspire fans to 'dream big'


Click here for the full story

Audio: Mike Francesa with Sandy Alderson yesterday on the WFAN


Here is Sandy Alderson with Mike Francesa on WFAN

Sandy will lead us and make us proud


I have seen the Sandy Alderson press conference. I have a lot of faith that he will try his best to put the best product on the field and off the field.

I appreciate his honesty and intelligence to let every Mets fan know what is exactly going to happen in the next couple of weeks. Omar Minaya sought of kept everyone in the dark what was going to happen when he took over. I am glad to see he is fan friendly and cares what we think. It's going to be great to see who he appoints to his scouting and other areas.

The Mets now have a little creditability and stability. They have a presence for ownership and their fans.

Itinerary for the next couple of weeks and months :

  1. Settle up the front office with one or two hires
  2. Hire a manager
  3. Cut some dead wood, make room on the roster for other moves
  4. Winter Meetings (I feel that the Mets will look a little different in 2011)

Wednesday, October 27, 2010

Pic of the day by Joe Petruccio



As always, good work Joe.....See more art work at My NY Mets Journal blog

Sandy will be the next GM of the New York Mets


According to several reports and Steve Popper of the NJ Bergen Record,  Sandy "Dandy" Alderson will be the next General Manager of the New York Mets.

Popper includes in his report that no contract has been signed because he still has to be released from his contract with Major League Baseball, but is believed that they have agreed in principal..

Alderson, who will turn 63 next month, ran the Oakland A’s from 1983-to-1997 and served as C.E.O. of the San Diego Padres from 2005 to 2009 before stepping down in an ownership change.

Another interesting note from Popper's report is that Alderson is the only man out of the group of candidates that has told ownership to back off and let him do his job. Alderson has a great relationship with Fred Wilpon so this marriage might just work.

The Mets have a lot of work to do and the Mets ownership wants him to get busy as fast as possible. My first 3 objectives would be to get rid of  Oliver Perez, Luis Castillo, and find a taker for Carlos Beltran.

Monday, October 25, 2010

Who are Sandy Alderson and Josh Byrnes?


The Mets have narrowed the field down to two candidates to replace Omar Minaya. Their names are Sandy Alderson and Josh Byrnes. Many Mets Fans do not know who they are.



Here is what they have done, Here is their Bios: 

Richard "Sandy" Alderson

Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations

Richard "Sandy" Alderson is Executive Vice President of Baseball Operations for Major League Baseball, reporting directly to MLB President & COO Bob DuPuy and Commissioner Allan H. (Bud) Selig. Alderson came to Major League Baseball in New York in 1998 after spending seventeen years with the Oakland A's.
Alderson left a private law practice in 1981 to become the A's General Counsel. He served as General Manager from 1983 through 1997 and as President from 1993 to 1995 and from 1997 through his departure from the A's in 1998.

Sandy Alderson
The A's won four American League West Championships during his tenure (1988, 89, 90, 92), participated in three consecutive World Series (1988-90) and captured the World Series in 1989. In addition, the A's farm system produced three consecutive Rookies of the Year from 1986-88 (Jose Canseco, Mark McGwire, Walt Weiss). Ben Grieve of the A's also won that award in 1998.

In his role with Major League Baseball, Alderson oversees Baseball Operations, Umpiring, On-Field Operations and Security and Facility Management. In addition, he is in charge of various special projects involving international play, including Major League Baseball's participation in the 1999 Pan American Games, the historic games with the Cuban National Team in the spring of 1999 and the 2000 Olympic Games in Sydney where Team USA won the Gold Medal.

Alderson holds degrees from Dartmouth College (1969) and Harvard Law School (1976). He also served four years as a Marine Infantry Officer with a tour of duty in Vietnam. He and his wife, Linda, have two children.

Josh Byrnes
Josh Byrnes
Former VP and GM of the Arizona Diamondbacks

For the second consecutive season, Josh Byrnes and his staff built a roster featuring young, mostly homegrown talent. In 2008, the D-backs spent a franchise-best 136 days in first place until relinquishing the top spot in September. Overall, no other NL club has spent more days than the D-backs’ 212 days in first place over the last two seasons. In 2007-08, Arizona has the Majors’ ninth-highest winning percentage (.531) despite having the 10th-lowest payroll.

Byrnes’ success in putting together competitive teams also includes a D-backs club that had a league-best 90-72 record in 2007 and surprised many by winning the NL West Championship in a competitive division that was the first in the Wild Card era (1995-present) to have four teams finish with winning records and two teams eventually meet in the League Championship Series. The D-backs remarkable 2007 season came only three years after leading MLB with 111 losses in 2004, tying three other teams (2006 Tigers, 1991 Braves, 1996 Padres) in baseball history to make the playoffs within three years of having a 100-plus loss season.

Byrnes began his front office career in 1994 as the Cleveland Indians were moving into then-Jacobs Field (now Progressive Field). In his time with the Indians, Byrnes performed a myriad of duties (advance scouting, contract research and preparation, pro scouting) before being named Director of Scouting in 1998. During Byrnes’ stint in Cleveland, the Indians broke a 41-year playoff drought and won five consecutive American League Central titles.

In the fall of 1999, Byrnes followed Dan O’Dowd to Colorado as the Assistant General Manager of the Rockies. During his three years in Colorado, Byrnes assisted O’Dowd on all Major League transactions and also was involved in the club’s scouting and development operations.

After the 2002 season, Byrnes accepted the Assistant General Manager position with the Boston Red Sox. Working with Theo Epstein, Byrnes assisted in all Major League personnel and contractual issues and continued an active role in all scouting matters. During Byrnes’ three years in Boston, the Red Sox won at least 95 games each year, participated in the playoffs each season and ended the franchise’s 86-year championship drought with a World Series title in 2004.

During his previous stints with other MLB clubs, Byrnes was involved in the drafting of CC Sabathia, Jeff Francis, Garrett Atkins, Brad Hawpe, Jonathan Papelbon, Dustin Pedroia, and Jacoby Ellsbury.

Originally from Washington, D.C., Byrnes attended Haverford College in Pennsylvania, establishing school career records for home runs and RBI (since broken). Currently, Byrnes and his wife, Charity, reside in Phoenix with their daughters Avery and Darby.

Both are pretty impressive and both can bring a lot of different elements. I wonder if the Mets would considering hiring both and letting Byrnes go more on the scouting route.

Dickey runner up for comeback player of the Year


R.A. Dickey's revival allowed him to finish in the top three in player balloting for the National League Comeback Player of the Year. But Dickey was topped by Atlanta's Tim Hudson for the award, the players association announced Monday. The other finalist was San Francisco's Aubrey Huff.

Dickey, who turns 36 on Friday, went 11-9 with a 2.84 ERA in 27 appearances (26 starts) for the Mets after a call-up from Triple-A Buffalo. In '09, he was 1-1 with a 4.62 ERA in 35 appearances (one start) for the Minnesota Twins.

MLB takes swing at injuries


MLB looking into ways to solve the problem of concussions.
David Wright getting plunked Aug 15, 2009.
The Mets have been at the forefront of the recent attention to head injuries, with Ryan Church, David Wright and Jason Bay all missing significant time with concussions during the past three years.

Now Major League Baseball is stepping up its efforts to further protect the players and has set up a committee to re-examine the sport's protocols, which could include a seven-day disabled list for concussions next season, a person familiar with the situation confirmed on Thursday.

Sunday, October 24, 2010

Pic of the day by Joe Petruccio


See more of  Joe's work at NY Mets Journal Blog

Video: Mets looking for new personnel (Funny)




Very Funny Video, Enjoy!

Welcome to Mets Chronicle!


Welcome to my new blog. This is my second attempt to having a blog. My first blog was called Dom D's Mets Fan Blog, but was hijacked by hackers and had to be shut down (unfortunately). I am going into this second venture not to compete with the bigger blogs (IE: Mets Blog), but just to voice my opinion about my favorite team the New York Mets.

I am going into this to try and make this time around a fresh new start just like he New York Mets. In the next couple of weeks the Mets will announce a new general manager, manager, and I am sure plenty of player moves to make this team more competitive. In this blog,  I will do my diligence to keep the Mets fan base up to date with the most news possible and things that I have read or discovered for your enjoyment.

I love to discover new material that no one writes about and share it with you. I will also have videos and pictures that have interest.

Let's Have Fun and Let's Go Mets!!!
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